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iOS 15 launched on September twentieth, 2021.

At round 10 am PST on that day, somebody someplace pressed that GO button for iOS 15 to rollout as a software program replace to all eligible iOS units.

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Apple is thought for being fairly obscure on the discharge information and timings of recent iOS options. The world of App Retailer Optimization and Cell Advertising and marketing has been deeply invested within the launch of iOS 15 because it carries with it Apple’s promise for 3 new App Retailer capabilities:

  1. In-App Occasions (IAEs)– a brand new entity that can enable the showcasing of IAEs in an “Occasions” gallery inside your product web page. Familiarise your self with this characteristic with our full In-App Occasions
  2. Customized Product Pages (CPPs)– the chance to create as much as 35 customized product pages, every with their very own creatives and messaging that match the set up motivations of specific audiences. Each web page has a novel URL that can be utilized with Person Acquisition campaigns. Learn extra about iOS 15 Customized Product Pages.
  3. Product Web page Optimization (PPO)– the flexibility to run native A/B checks in your default App Retailer product web page (not the customized product pages). Study extra about Product Web page Optimization.

The launch timeline expectation of those new options

In varied methods, Apple hinted that IAEs will probably be launched first and on the identical date because the worldwide launch of iOS 15.

Nicely, that didn’t occur.

In addition they hinted beforehand that CPPs and PPO will probably be launched later this 12 months.

However with the combo of obscure information and quite a lot of rumors, it’s been troublesome to estimate a precise date.

What occurred with the launch of the brand new iOS 15 capabilities? The Proof

Right here’s the timeline:

  1. The Mysterious Asterisk

Up till 10 am PST, Apple had a number of net pages on its web site that talked about In-App Occasions would launch with iOS 15. Apple had a user-facing feature-list web page that talked about IAEs and their look in a brand new App Retailer widget for the house display.

On this web page, any characteristic that wasn’t going to be out there at launch had an asterisk labeling it “Coming later this fall”.

In-app occasions didn’t have that asterisk label, however shortly after the replace was rolled out, mysteriously, an asterisk was added to the characteristic.

  • The IAEs web page on the App Retailer developer net web page had a “Coming Quickly” label up till 10am PST. Within the minutes that adopted, the label modified to: “Accessible this fall”
  • The What’s New within the App Retailer for builders net web page had one other annotation beneath all three options (In-App Occasions, Customized Product Pages, and Product Web page Optimization) that mentioned “Accessible on iOS 15”.

Screenshot from The Wayback Machine of that web page because it was on September 14th.

A couple of minutes after 10am PST and the replace rollout, this textual content had modified to: “Accessible later this 12 months, requires a minimal of iOS 15”.

  • One other replace was made to the ‘What’s New within the App Retailer for builders web page” shortly after 10am PST with reference to App Analytics in App Retailer Join.

This “Accessible Later this 12 months” tag appeared as a substitute of the “Accessible for all apps on iOS” tag that was there moments earlier than.

  1. The Disappearing Sentence

Along with the above, the iOS 15 launch notes, as they appeared on the iPhone when the replace grew to become out there, included this line: “App Retailer in-app occasions assist you uncover well timed occasions inside apps and video games comparable to a sport competitors, a brand new film premiere, or a live-streamed expertise.”

This was within the precise replace launch notes. A couple of minutes afterward, that sentence was faraway from the web model of the discharge notes which may be discovered right here.

So what occurred? 

Clearly, In-App Occasions had been deliberate to be launched with iOS 15 at 10 am PST (even showing within the launch notes.) On the final minute, a call was made and the characteristic received pulled from the replace – for a motive we could by no means know.

Might or not it’s a bug? Or possibly somebody within the App Retailer management workforce felt the launch wouldn’t be sturdy sufficient, because the overwhelming majority of app builders don’t have any in-app occasions uploaded to the shop (with the exclusion of some beta testers)?

The proof reveals that it was positively deliberate to be launched on September twentieth.

There’s even much less info round for CPPs and PPO, as these aren’t user-facing options. They’re solely talked about on the Developer web site.

What we do know is that a couple of minutes after 10 am PST, a aware change was made to those pages, together with the label beneath CPP and PPO saying “out there later this 12 months”.

One other fascinating thought

Let’s give it some thought from Apple’s perspective and in relation to earlier iOS model releases. It takes 12-13 weeks till round 80% of iOS customers undertake a brand new model (it stays at about 80%, as some individuals who haven’t upgraded their {hardware} use older units that aren’t suitable).

If we have a look at Mixpanel’s information, we will see it took between 12-13 weeks till iOS 14 reached 80% adoption.

The information additionally reveals that it took 4-5 weeks till the adoption price reached 40%, which is arguably a big mass viewers (about 400M customers primarily based on the most recent launch from Apple saying there are 1B iPhone units lively).

Why is the adoption price necessary to the timing of when Apple releases these new App Retailer options? As a result of these options are depending on there being:

  • sufficient customers with iOS 15 put in to really be uncovered to in-app occasions
  • sufficient customers out there to be a ok pattern for Product Web page Optimization
  • and to make sure that most customers directed to CPPs really see them (as they’ve iOS 15 put in) and never be redirected to the default web page.

The large query is… at what adoption price will Apple really feel snug sufficient to launch these options? I consider the reply is round 50% (no less than 1 out of two App Retailer guests may have iOS 15). If we study from the previous launch of iOS 14, this occurs about 6-7 weeks after launch, which in iOS 15’s case means it’ll be round early November, in all probability with an iOS 15.1 replace.

Hypotheses as to what’s going to occur 

  1. As all these three options now element “out there later this 12 months” and somebody at Apple wrote that on September twentieth, we will anticipate all three of them to be launched in 2021.
  2. The in-app occasions web page has extra info because it says “Accessible this fall”.
  3. This leads us to consider that sooner or later between October 1st and mid-December, all three options will probably be launched (until one thing surprising occurs.)
  4. In accordance with the adoption-rate thesis, I consider there’s a excessive probability that the discharge will probably be round early November. 
  5. In fact, Apple may change its plan the identical manner it did with in-app occasions, minutes earlier than it was launched.

In abstract

All this leads us to the ultimate working assumption we advocate you undertake:

“All three new iOS 15 App Retailer capabilities will probably be launched sooner or later between October 1st and December fifteenth with iOS 15.1 or iOS 15.2”.